Vietnam's Supplemental Pension Fund Potentially Expanding to 200 Billion Yen

Key pointsVietnam's supplemental pension fund currently accounts for less than 1% of GDP, but if the working population contributes 1 million VND monthly, the total could reach approximately 200 billion yen. This estimate is gaining attention as a new point of discussion in the development of Vietnam's capital market. The expansion of the supplemental pension system is expected to promote economic growth and the expansion of the middle class, serving as a means for asset formation in retirement.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the importance of supplemental pensions as part of employee benefits may increase. In a competitive labor market, enhancing benefits packages that include pensions and insurance will be key to retaining talent.

Key pointsMBS Securities has analyzed that Vietnam's economy may face heightened inflation pressure in the remaining four months until the end of 2025. Factors such as rising oil prices, increased construction material costs, currency fluctuations, and expanding credit growth rates are expected to influence prices, raising concerns about upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and potential impacts on investment decisions.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, rising construction material and fuel costs could contribute to increased manufacturing and logistics expenses. Companies building supply chains within Vietnam need to be vigilant about fluctuations in raw material procurement costs.

Key pointsAccording to SSI Research, Vietnam's stock market is expected to see an inflow of approximately $240 million into 27 stocks this weekend following an upgrade by FTSE. Notably, stocks such as VPB and VHM are attracting attention. The FTSE upgrade strengthens Vietnam's position as an emerging market, with future fund inflows anticipated.
Business impactJapanese companies need to reassess their investment strategies in light of the FTSE upgrade and consider investing in particularly noteworthy stocks. It is essential to monitor market trends and invest at the appropriate timing.

Key pointsRecently, global government bond yields have reached their highest levels in decades, particularly in the United States and the United Kingdom. This trend may also affect the Vietnamese economy. The rise in yields signifies an increase in long-term financing costs, impacting borrowing rates for businesses and the government. This is particularly influenced by rising inflation and energy prices, which could have a ripple effect on the overall economy. Additionally, increased investment in AI is believed to be affecting yields.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the rise in financing costs will have a direct impact. There may be a need to reassess long-term investment plans and financing strategies. The financial sector is required to closely monitor yield trends and implement appropriate risk management.

Key pointsOn September 11, 2026, during 'Vietnam Capital Market Day' held in London, Vietnam's Ministry of Finance announced its commitment to ongoing market reforms and improving access for international investors. The upgrade of Vietnam to emerging market status by FTSE Russell was announced, raising expectations for the development of Vietnam's capital market. A senior official from the Ministry stated that efforts are being made to enhance transparency and improve trading mechanisms for foreign investors.
Business impactThis upgrade may provide new fundraising opportunities for Japanese companies. In particular, companies seeking long-term capital will need to strengthen their access to international markets.

Key pointsOn September 10, 2026, T&T Energy Group and TotalEnergies signed a memorandum regarding an LNG power plant project in Ho Chi Minh City. The project is expected to involve an investment of approximately 40 trillion VND (1.5 billion USD) and will have a generation capacity of about 1,500 MW. It is anticipated to play a crucial role in energy security in southern Vietnam.
Business impactThis project presents investment opportunities in the energy sector and may create new business chances for Japanese companies. Energy-related firms should closely monitor future developments.

Key pointsThe Rixos Phu Quoc Vietnam project on Phu Quoc Island involves 3,000 engineers and workers daily. This project aims to create a new tourist destination that blends construction technology with the culture of Phu Quoc. The construction is scheduled for completion in November 2026, featuring 1,491 accommodations, including 321 suites.
Business impactThis project presents new business opportunities in the tourism and hospitality sectors. Japanese companies should seize opportunities to provide tourism-related services and products.

Key pointsOn September 3, 2026, the 'International Supply Chain Connection 2026' event was launched in Ho Chi Minh City. This event aims to strengthen the connection between Vietnamese companies and global supply chains, providing skills for participation in international supply chains and opportunities to promote logistics restructuring.
Business impactJapanese companies can gain new business opportunities through participation in international supply chains. Particularly in logistics and manufacturing, there is a demand for building efficient supply chains.

Key pointsThe industrial real estate market in the south maintains a stable foundation with high occupancy rates. Infrastructure expansion is progressing particularly in Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai Province, and Tay Ninh Province, indicating potential for growth. A clear market recovery is expected in the first quarter of 2026, presenting new growth opportunities.
Business impactJapanese companies need to reassess their investment strategies and focus on infrastructure development to capitalize on the growth of the southern industrial real estate market.

Key pointsThe main factor hindering economic growth in Dong Nai Province is the land clearance process for important projects. To address this issue, a new, systematic, and innovative approach is required. Dong Nai Province has established a steering committee for land clearance and resettlement support and has launched a rapid land clearance campaign for highways within 90 days.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the progress of land clearance is directly linked to project schedules. Companies involved in infrastructure investment need to pay attention to the local government's new policies and may need to revise and adjust their plans.

Key pointsOn the last trading day before the holiday, the proprietary trading division of securities companies in the Vietnam stock market sold off 712.6 billion Dong (approximately 43.18 million USD). This movement indicates a strengthening selling stance among individual investors, while domestic institutional investors supported buying, adjusting the supply-demand balance. Changes in overall market supply and demand are crucial indicators for forecasting the Vietnamese economy's outlook.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, fluctuations in the stock market's supply and demand may have limited direct impact, but they could indirectly affect liquidity and the funding environment. It is particularly important to monitor foreign investor trends, especially considering the supply-demand distortions around holiday periods.

Key pointsIn Ho Chi Minh City, the processing of C/O (Certificate of Origin) applications is extremely high, with the daily volume equivalent to what other provinces handle in a year. Approximately 17,000 applications have been submitted, with 12,000 already processed and 5,000 currently under review. Notably, HCMC also accepts applications from other provinces, accounting for about 50% of the total, indicating strong trust from businesses. The volume of C/O procedures is expected to increase further, necessitating proper document preparation by companies.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, there is a need to expedite the C/O application process. It is particularly important to prepare documents thoroughly to reduce review time and enhance the efficiency of export operations.