SGI Capital Warns of Risks in Vietnam's Stock Market Decline

Key pointsSGI Capital has warned that the Vietnamese stock market may enter a downward trend, potentially triggering a chain reaction of deleveraging. With the VN-Index environment becoming uncertain, changes in investor sentiment are a focal point, and maintaining cash and exercising patience are suggested as risk-averse strategies. Structural risks in the market are becoming apparent, particularly due to the inexperience of individual investors.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, while fluctuations in the stock market may have limited direct impact, the stability of the capital market could influence the fundraising environment and investor sentiment. Companies building supply chains in the manufacturing sector should pay close attention to market psychological trends.

Key pointsForeign investors have turned to net buying in the Vietnamese stock market, purchasing 4.012 trillion VND (approximately 24.31 million USD). Notably, there was also a net purchase of 2.83 trillion VND (approximately 17.15 million USD) in matching transactions, indicating a shift from the previous trend of net selling. This movement is attracting attention among market participants and serves as an important indicator of capital inflow trends into Vietnam.
Business impactThe net buying by foreign investors may promote capital inflows, particularly in the financial and real estate sectors. For Japanese companies, this is expected to improve the funding environment for local subsidiaries and positively impact relationship building with business partners.

Key pointsSonKim Land has signed a strategic cooperation agreement for integrated station development with Hong Kong's MTR Corporation and Gamuda Land. This agreement was announced at the 'Belt and Road' summit held in Hong Kong and aims to explore urban development opportunities centered around public transportation. SonKim Land is particularly proposing integrated station development in the Thu Thiem area of Ho Chi Minh City, aiming for sustainable urban development.
Business impactThis agreement provides Japanese companies with new entry opportunities into Vietnam's urban development market. Companies involved in transportation infrastructure and urban development should consider collaboration with SonKim Land.

Key pointsIn the Vietnamese stock market, after a sharp decline in the VN-Index, the trading volume on both exchanges dropped to 5.09 trillion VND (approximately 308.5 million USD) during morning trading. While selling pressure has diminished, there has been no confirmation of a buying rebound. Market participants are trying to gauge the next move, particularly as the VN-Index's trend is a crucial indicator for those considering investment in Vietnam.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the short-term fluctuations in the stock market have minimal direct impact; however, they should consider it as a reference for measuring supply chain and local consumption trends. Notably, when investing through mutual funds, the recent sharp decrease in trading volume may serve as a key factor in determining entry timing.

Key pointsUOB Bank forecasts that the Federal Reserve Board (FRB) will maintain its policy interest rates until the end of 2026. This prediction examines the potential effects on the Vietnamese economy and the exchange rate of the dong. A stable interest rate may influence foreign investment and trade in Vietnam, particularly affecting the competitiveness of Vietnamese companies amid expectations of stable exchange rates.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the FRB's interest rate policy directly impacts funding costs and exchange rate risks. Companies engaged in import and export activities need to closely monitor exchange rate trends and implement risk hedging strategies.

Key pointsOn September 10, 2026, in Hanoi, Proparco, a subsidiary of the French Development Agency (AFD), announced a $20 million high-interest loan to EVF (Electric Power Comprehensive Finance Corporation). This loan aims to promote climate finance and expand access to funding for women-led or owned small and medium-sized enterprises. It is positioned as a significant step in strengthening support for women entrepreneurs in Vietnam.
Business impactThis loan increases funding opportunities for women-led businesses, prompting Japanese companies to strengthen collaboration with women entrepreneurs. It is particularly important to emphasize women's leadership in funding and investment strategies.

Key pointsThe gold price has recovered to $4,400 per ounce, rising against a backdrop of a weaker dollar. Investor speculation is increasing ahead of the release of U.S. inflation statistics. In the Vietnamese economy, trends in gold demand may influence capital flows. The market is focused on the $4,400 level, as gold is traditionally popular as a means of preserving household assets. The movement of gold prices is also believed to impact the Vietnamese stock market.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the trend in gold prices is influenced by the weaker dollar and U.S. interest rates, necessitating attention to foreign exchange risk management and funding costs. Particularly for Japanese investors considering asset formation through investment trusts, gold prices serve as an important indicator. The upcoming U.S. inflation statistics will be closely watched.

Key pointsApple is reported to potentially announce a foldable iPhone 18 model at an event on September 10, 2026. This model is expected to feature an A20 chip and 12GB of RAM, although details on design and pricing have not yet been confirmed. The foldable smartphone market is becoming increasingly competitive, and Apple's entry into this sector is anticipated to impact other companies.
Business impactJapanese companies need to monitor competitors' movements in preparation for Apple's new product announcement and reassess their product development and marketing strategies. There is a particular need to prepare for the growth in the foldable smartphone market.

Key pointsResearch by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board (FRB) indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by increased demand from the private sector rather than a shift from dollars to gold by central banks. Many countries holding public gold reserves have not added to their gold holdings in over 50 years, which may prompt a reevaluation of international capital flows. This analysis could have indirect effects on the Vietnamese economy.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the exchange rate trends of the dong and the dollar are directly linked to raw material procurement and cash flow, and international discussions surrounding gold prices are recognized as risk factors. It is important to verify the presence of currency hedges and the ratio of local currency-denominated assets.

Key pointsIssuance of Chinese renminbi bonds has reached record levels, with international companies and foreign governments accelerating fundraising amid low interest rates. This may have indirect effects on the Vietnamese economy. Although specific issuance amounts have not been disclosed, changes in capital flows are being closely watched, particularly the potential increase in foreign capital inflows into Vietnam's stock market.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the increase in renminbi-denominated funding will impact the financing environment of supply chains. New options may emerge for parts procurement and local subsidiaries' cash flow management, requiring careful attention.

Key pointsPublic debt payments in advanced countries have reached $20 trillion annually, raising concerns about their impact on the global economy and, specifically, on Vietnam. The austerity measures in these countries may alter capital flows and affect investment strategies towards emerging markets like Vietnam, which is gaining attention for its relative stability and growth potential.
Business impactContinued fiscal pressure in advanced countries could lead to fluctuations in foreign capital inflows to Vietnam, particularly affecting the financial and real estate sectors. Japanese companies may need to reassess their fundraising and investment strategies.

Key pointsCities in Vietnam such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Da Nang have been recognized for having high rates of repeat tourists, with Da Nang ranking 6th. This indicates the sustained appeal of tourist destinations. Notably, Da Nang is favored for its beautiful beaches and accessibility.
Business impactThe tourism industry needs to strengthen strategies to increase repeat visitors. Japanese companies are required to provide services that meet tourist needs and enhance customer satisfaction.