Impact of Rising Crude Oil Prices on Vietnam's Economy and Investment Outlook

Key pointsA major oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked, causing crude oil prices to rise by over 3%. This has led to increased energy costs and new uncertainties for the Vietnamese economy, particularly concerning rising transportation and electricity costs, which may have widespread effects on the manufacturing sector. Attention to energy-related stocks has increased in the Vietnamese stock market.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, rising oil prices will directly lead to increased transportation and production costs. Manufacturing firms with supply chains both domestically and internationally will need to recalculate logistics costs. Investors should closely monitor trends in energy-related stocks and strengthen risk management.

Key pointsA subsidiary of Petrovietnam in Vietnam has completed four offshore substations for the Baltica 2 project off the coast of Poland and has begun their transportation. These substations are a crucial component of renewable energy, with the project's total design output reaching 1,500 MW. The project is scheduled to commence commercial operations in the fourth quarter of 2027.
Business impactThis project demonstrates the international competitiveness of Vietnam's energy industry, highlighting the need for Japanese companies to consider business opportunities related to renewable energy in the Vietnamese market.

Key pointsThe VN-Index dropped by 1.86% to close at 1795.21 points, falling below the psychological threshold of 1800 points again. It attempted to break through 1800 points for 10 consecutive trading days, but selling pressure increased, cooling investor sentiment. The 1800 points mark is considered an important indicator of the balance between growth expectations for the Vietnamese economy and stock market valuations.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the short-term adjustment in the stock market has little direct impact, but it may affect fundraising costs and the stock valuations of local partners. A cautious approach is required regarding short-term stock price fluctuations. Future progress on FTSE upgrades should also be closely monitored.

Key pointsVingroup's stock code VIC is expected to be subject to the sale of approximately 3.6 million shares, valued at 860 billion VND, due to ETF restructuring. This move is anticipated to impact supply and demand in the Vietnamese stock market.
Business impactJapanese companies need to closely monitor Vingroup's developments and reassess their investment strategies, particularly paying attention to the trends of large-cap stocks that are sensitive to ETF influences.

Key pointsProminent Vietnamese businessman Pham Nhat Vuong has transferred management rights of VinFast and GMS to his sons. This power transfer is also occurring in major companies such as Novaland, ACB, TTC AgriS, and REE, indicating a trend where the next generation of leaders is taking over corporate operations. Notably, Pham Nhat Quang An has been appointed CEO of VinFast, assuming responsibility for the company's future.
Business impactSuch power transfers may impact corporate management strategies and investment policies. Japanese companies should reassess their relationships with these firms and strengthen collaboration with the next generation of leaders.

Key pointsThe VN-Index, the main stock index of the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange, fell below 1800 points during the week of September 14-18, 2026, with various securities firms expressing differing views on the future market outlook. This may change investor sentiment regarding the Vietnamese economy, particularly concerning foreign investors' movements. There is an increased caution among market participants, indicating a potential short-term adjustment phase.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, while short-term fluctuations in the stock market may have limited direct impact, prolonged deterioration in capital market sentiment could indirectly affect fundraising costs and the investment mindset of partner companies. It is particularly important to monitor the movements of foreign investors.

Key pointsOn September 11, 2023, in Paris, Vietnam's Minister of Finance, Ho Van Tuan, met with leaders from Rothschild & Co., who proposed support for improving Vietnam's national credit rating and funding for infrastructure projects. They expressed interest in participating in the ¥67 trillion North-South high-speed rail project and power plans. Vietnam aims to allocate over 40% of its GDP to investments in its socio-economic development plan for 2026-2031, increasing the need for funding.
Business impactRothschild's proposal could expand investment opportunities for Japanese companies in Vietnam. Specifically, funding in the infrastructure sector may encourage the entry of Japanese firms. The finance department will need to reassess its funding strategies.

Key pointsDuring the official visit of Vietnam's President Vo Lam to France, Vietjet and CFM International signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) to develop maintenance capabilities for the CFM LEAP engine. CFM plans to support Vietjet in assessing its engine maintenance needs and technical capabilities. This initiative is a significant step in enhancing the status of Vietnam's aviation industry as Vietjet expands its fleet of next-generation aircraft. The president of CFM stated that Vietnam is one of the most active aviation markets in the world and expressed a desire to strengthen cooperation with Vietjet.
Business impactThis collaboration will not only enhance Vietjet's aircraft maintenance capabilities but will also contribute to the training of engineers in compliance with international standards in the future. Japanese companies should focus on aircraft-related technologies and human resource development to seize business opportunities in the Vietnamese market.

Key pointsA Vietnamese investment fund has adopted a strategy to increase its cash holdings due to concerns over global stock market volatility. This reflects the uncertainty surrounding the Vietnamese economy, particularly as headwinds against risk assets intensify. The level of cash ratio will be an important indicator of future market trends.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the defensive stance of local investment funds may impact funding costs and investment appetite. This is particularly critical in a phase where resilience to short-term market fluctuations is required, necessitating caution in investment decisions.

Key pointsOn September 11, 2026, VinFast signed strategic memorandums of understanding (MOU) with 13 dealers to establish 27 new showrooms in the Philippines. This plan is a significant step in expanding the sales network for electric vehicles across the country, particularly in the regions of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. It is expected that VinFast will enter new markets in addition to major cities like Metro Manila and Cebu.
Business impactJapanese companies need to monitor the rising demand for electric vehicles in the Philippine market through VinFast's expansion and reassess their competitive strategies, particularly in developing environmentally friendly products.

Key pointsA significant sell-off occurred in Vietnam's stock market, causing the VN-Index to drop sharply. Trading volume on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE) increased by 36% compared to the previous day, reaching a high not seen in seven trading days. Notably, 59% of trading concentrated in the afternoon session as investors moved to liquidate stocks to realize losses. Market caution intensified, leading to a rapid decline in stock prices.
Business impactFor Japanese companies, the short-term drop in stock prices has minimal direct impact, but attention is needed regarding funding costs and investor sentiment. It is essential to monitor market trends and strengthen risk management.

Key pointsOn September 11, 2026, Vietnam's Minister of Finance visited the French Development Agency (AFD) to sign a memorandum aimed at enhancing cooperation between the two countries. Vietnam plans to establish seven loan agreements with AFD between 2021 and 2025 to finance sustainable development projects.
Business impactJapanese companies should monitor this development and assess its impact on related transactions, contracts, and local operations.